#5 - Boston Red Sox - Konichiwa!!!

As anyone who's ever read this blog, met me, or stood within 20 feet of me knows, I'm a die-hard Bosox fan. So, because I'll be writing about the Sox disproportionally this season, I'll keep this review to an absolute minimum. God knows that the Sox are covered ad nauseum anyway, so you know the basics about the team:

1) Manny Ramirez is certifiably crazy and is just about capable of anything, but he'll hit 35 homers and knock in 120 runs. Seriously, at this point he could take left field in only a loin cloth and fuzzy slippers, and no one would be surprised.
2) Curt Schilling talks too much, but Dan Shaughnessy's attacks on him are ridiculous. 38 Pitches is actually a very insightful blog for anyone who wants to learn more about all things baseball. Shaughnessy is still bitter at Schilling for ending the so-called "Curse of the Bambino," which is a term that he popularized, and in turn made him a lot of money.
3) The Sox and Yanks will still be bitter rivals this year, and that rivalry will still be fun to Sox and Yanks fans. As for fans of the other 28 teams...
4) So there's this new Japanese pitcher on the roster - that's right - Hideki Okajima! Oh, there may be this other guy - Dice something.
5) The Sox will be in the playoff hunt this year. How far do they go? Good question. Here's what to expect from the Sox this year:

Biggest reason for hope: Even without closer-turned-starter-turned-closer Jonathan Papelbon, the starting rotation of Schilling, Josh Beckett, Dice-K, and Tim Wakefield may be the best in baseball. For now, Julian "America's Top Model" Tavarez holds down the fifth spot, but in all likelihood will be replaced eventually by Jon Lester (the cancer survivor is the feel good story of spring training), or perhaps by the Indecisive One, who currently sits in his Katy, Texas compound counting money and making Hamlet look like George W. Bush. The team's OPS has slipped every year since 2004, but as long as Big Papi and Manny bat 3-4, you have a good foundation. Newly acquired Julio Lugo should provide stability at the top of the lineup since the fallen Jesus left town, and J.D. Drew should thrive in the #5 slot so long as he hasn't broken his femur by the time this entry is posted.

Biggest potential nightmare: Even with closer-turned-starter-turned-closer Papelbon, the bullpen is still shakier than Alberto Gonzales's memory. Mike Timlin is 41 and just off the DL. Brendan Donnelly probably is the main seup man, but after that, do you trust Joel Piniero, J.C. Romero, or Kyle Snyder with a lead? Me neither. And what if the injury bug strikes again? Drew knows the DL like Drew Rosenhaus knows the devil.

Player to watch: Perhaps Matsuzaka? Actually, I'm more interested in Beckett. After last year's deal in which the Sox gave up Anibel Sanchez (ouch) and Hanley Ramirez (double ouch) to get him, Beckett was less than effective. He won 16 games but had an unsightly 5.01 ERA. He seemed afraid to throw his devastating curveball (perhaps because of his previous blister problems), and batters were able to feast off of his straight fastballs to the tune of 36 home runs allowed.

Why do we still have to watch this player?: Romero. Oh wait, he's left-handed and is still relatively young at 30. Mark him down for at least 10 more mediocre-to-poor seasons.

Telling statistic: Manny has hit at least 30 home runs and knocked in 100 RBI in the past 9 seasons. He officially may be the most productive certifiably insane player in baseball history, passing Albert Belle a few years back. By the way, Belle and Ramirez used to be teammates in Cleveland. What could they possibly have talked about? Perhaps Belle could barter with Manny and trade his grill for a GPS?

Interesting fact signifying nothing: Dice-K throws at least 7 different pitches for strikes. I haven't seen this many funky angles since I stole that Kama Sutra book from the library when I was 12.

Projected record & finish: 95-67, 2nd Place, AL East, lose in ALDS

Prediction that won't come true but should: Manny plays an entire game naked, and yet still goes 4 for 5 with 2 home runs. He isn't disciplined afterwards.

#6 - Philadelphia Phillies - Phillies - Phaithful Phans Hope Team Is Phantastic and Not Phu!*ed

Pity the Philly sports fan. It has been almost 24 years since the city of Philadelphia has seen a major team win a championship (sorry, the Philadelphia Kixx don't count), the largest drought of any city with teams from four major sports. It's enough to make a fan want to hit Santa with snowballs and/or broken bottles, but I suspect that Philly fans don't believe in Santa at this point. So, I can understand Philly's skepticism over Jimmy Rollins's statement that the Phillies are the "team to beat" in the NL East. Considering that the Phillies haven't made the playoffs since 1993, Rollins's boast might seem like a dark omen to the Philly faithful.

But as a detached observer, I'm here to reassure the good people of Philadelphia that the Phillies are indeed the best team in the NL East. While they may not have the best pitching staff or lineup in the division, they have the most balance of any of the NL East brethren. I think that you'll see the Phillies in October doing something other than filming promos for the 2008 season. So have faith, Philly faithful, and please now put the weapon down ... slowly. Here's what to expect from the Phillies in 2007.

Biggest reason for hope: The Phils have starting pitching depth that no other divisional rival can match. With six quality major league starters (Jon Lieber will have to go to the bullpen), eating up innings should not be an issue. Freddy Garcia was a great offseason pickup (both for his pitching ability and the intimidation factor that comes from looking like The Rock), Cole Hamels has the potential to win 15-20 games, and Jamie Moyer will seemingly be effective until he's 50. With a potent lineup including some power hitter named Howard, Chase Utley, booable but productive Pat Burrell, and Rollins, the team is built to go 162.


Biggest potential nightmare: While the starters can go deep, they may have to given the relatively thin bullpen. Tom Gordon is an effective yet fragile closer, and there's no clear setup man in front of him. Perhaps it's Antonio Alfonseca, who can pitch 75 games a year and is the only MLB player who can give a teammate a "high six." Ideally, the Phils will trade Lieber for a setup guy, but if not, there could be problems. Oh, and did I mention that Charlie Manuel sounds like Forrest Gump? That wouldn't give me a lot of faith in my team's manager, although I would take one of his chocolates if he offered it to me.

Player to watch: Brett Myers. Myers has the best stuff of any Phillies pitcher, and agreed to a 3-year, $26 million extension in the offseason. However, Myers is still somewhat of an enigma who may not have the mental makeup to be a #1 starter. He does, however, have the mental makeup to hit his wife in public. Yep, that'd make me want to give a guy $26 million guaranteed. It's a "prove it" year for Myers, and by "prove it," I mean both to the Phillies and to law enforcement officers.

Why do we still have to watch this player?: Third Baseman Abraham Nunez hit .211 and had an OPS below .600 in 322 at-bats last year in Philly. Yet, he'll be back on this year's roster and still play a fair amount of third base. Did we mention that the Phillies had Scott Rolen at third four short years ago?

Telling statistic: People have a misconception that Citizens Bank Park is a power hitters park. Well, let's look at the stats, shall we? In 2006, 233 homers were hit in Philly, the most of any NL stadium, while teams allowed 204 homers in Phillies road games. So... I guess it isn't a misconception at all. My bad.

Interesting fact signifying nothing: Howard hit 58 homers at the age of 26. The only player younger to hit that many homers in a single season at a younger age was Jimmie Foxx, who hit 58 homers in 1932 for the Philadelphia A's at the age of 25. Of course, we don't know if Foxx was on steroids, so to settle this once and for all, I say we dig him up.

Projected record & finish: 94-68, 1st Place, NL East, Lose in NLDS.

Prediction that won't come true but should: Donovan McNabb is invited to throw out the first pitch at the Phillies home opener, but sadly be trips on his way to the mound and blows out his ACL.

#7 - Los Angeles Dodgers - The Chavez Ravine Retirement Home?

Here's a multiple choice question - the man above is:
a) waiting for a bus
b) clearly lost
c) struggling to get around
d) the starting right fielder for the Los Angeles Dodhgers
e) all of the above


In November 2005, Ned Colletti became the general manager of the Dodgers, replacing Billy Beane protege and young whippersnapper Paul DePodesta. Colletti had previously been assistant GM for the Giants, an organization that is known to ignore their minor league system and embrace "proven veterans" (witness the Giants creaky lineup, which will lead the league in runners caught stealing, games missed due to injury, steroids consumed by a left fielder, and Social Security collected). However, unlike with the Giants, Colletti inherited the consistently rich Dodgers minor league system. How would Colletti handle such riches? Well, basically by ignoring them.

Last year, the kids helped the Dodgers to the NL West title. After the Dodgers were hampered by numerous injuries, Andre Ethier, Matt Kemp, and Russell Martin helped revive the team and send it to the playoffs. But that was then, and this is, well, around 1998, if you're Ned Colletti. Ethier and Martin did so well that they may be able to keep their jobs in 2007, but as for the rest of the Dodgers young core? Forget it. Why play Kemp when you can sign 39 year-old Luis Gonzalez, who at this point in his career will probably be good for 10-15 homers and 60-70 RBIs, and can throw the ball with all the strength of a grandmother shot-putting a can of lima beans? Let's sign offensively-challenged-yet-speedy center fielder Juan Pierre to an outrageous 5-year, $44 million dollar contract even though Jason Repko (before getting injured last week) can play the position just as capably at 1/200th the price! Let's bench Ryan Howard-clone James Loney so we can get another year of Nomar at first base! Seriously, if you're under 30, the only way that you can get in the Dodgers lineup is if someone gets hurt. So in that respect, I guess there's hope for Loney.

I think the Dodgers are doing some truly asinine things and wasting money in the stupidest way possible that doesn't involve "making it rain." So why am I still picking them to win the NL West? Because they have the best top-to-bottom pitching in the National League. Their superior moundwork in pitcher-friendly Chavez Ravine will carry the Dodgers to another NL West crown. However, their failure to use their young talent will prevent them from moving much farther than that. They'll keep putting band-aids on problems when the long-term cure is right beneath their noses. And after all, Luis Gonzalez has used all of his playoff karma up. Here's what to expect from the Dodgers in 2007:

Biggest reason for hope: Like the hitters, the starting rotation is old, but it's very good. Assuming that Derek Lowe doesn't seduce another Dodgers on-air personality (if he does, my money's on Vin Scully), he's a quality #1 starter. Jason Schmidt was a great pickup in the offseason - he's still an elite starter and taking him from a division rival was a coup. Add in Brad Penny and Randy Wolf, and the rotation is good. The fifth starter should be 22 year-old Chad Billingsley, who was good in 16 starts last season, but - surprise! - the Dodgers have settled on the immortal Brett Tomko (lifetime 4.54 ERA). Plus, the bullpen is solid, with hard throwers Billingsley, Hong-Chih Kuo and Jonathan Broxton setting up closer Takashi Saito, who had a superb 2006. The Dodgers should lead the league in ERA.

Biggest potential nightmare: Injuries break down the team, which is possible given the older roster. Jeff Kent had a hard time staying healthy last year, even though he managed to avoid washing his truck. Nomar has a hard time staying healthy after he sneezes. Of course, if the regulars go down, the kids may be able to finally play, assuming that Colletti doesn't go out and sign Rickey Henderson or Bob Feller as stop-gap replacements.

Player to watch: Nomah! He slumped badly in the second half last year after making the All-Star team. There are still questions whether he can play a full season anymore at an elite level. Personally, I'm rooting for him - a good Nomah is always wicked pissah for his long-time fans. Of course, I'm guessing that the over/under for his first injury is May 1, when he sprains his neck under the weight of so much hair gel.

Why do we still have to watch this player?: Brady Clark. The 34 year-old journeyman outfielder finally got an everyday shot at a job in Milwaukee, and promptly played himself out of the starting lineup. Perhaps it's because he's doesn't possess power, arm strength, speed, or defensive skill. However, when Repko went down, the Dodgers chose to - surprise! - trade for Clark and use him as a fourth outfielder, instead of using one of their many young outfielders in the role.

Telling statistic: With the Giants, Schmidt was 78-37 with a 3.36 ERA. That's a big subtraction for the Giants and a big addition for the Dodgers.

Interesting fact signifying nothing: The Dodgers staff has an Asian flair. Saito is from Japan, Kuo and reliever Chin-hui Tsao are from Taiwan, and the 260-pound Penny really likes General Tso's Chicken.

Projected record & finish: 92-70, 1st place, NL West - lose in NLDS

Prediction that won't come true but should: The Dodgers are ahead in Game 7 of the NLCS, but lose the game when manager Grady Little fails to pull Lowe in favor of one of their great setup men. When asked why he made his decision, Little said that he wanted his best pitcher on the mound, which is why Lowe pitched all 63 innings in the series.

#8 - Cleveland Indians - The Spice Is Back

I use the term "guilty pleasure" too much. For example, I may refer to a mediocre album (such anything by Aerosmith) as a guilty pleasure even though there is SOME redeeming quality to the art (well, maybe not "Dude Looks Like a Lady," but I digress). A guilty pleasure should have NO redeeming qualities, but they are enjoyed nonetheless (example - any of the Seagal films with three-word titles). One of my true guilty pleasures is hot dogs, which I all think we can agree have no redeeming qualities.

However, there is one exception to my hot dog craving that takes the "guilty pleasure" title away from the miscellaneous meat product - Cleveland Stadium Mustard. It's the perfect hot dog mustard - strong, tangy, with just a hint of sweetness. The greatest stadium hot dog that I've ever had was a foot long with stadium mustard and onions at Jacobs Field in 2001. Is it bad that I'm still smiling at the thought of a footlong that I ate almost six years ago? Paging Dr. Freud?

The Indians are a team that usually can't cut the mustard (pun entirely intended). In 2006, big things were expected from the Tribe after their 2005 campaign that should have netted a playoff berth but for the fact that they played with their hands around their throat over the last week of the season. However, the Indians were the most disappointing team of 2006, finishing with a 78-84 record. This year, the Indians are back with largely the same young core of players, with a few notable upgrades. In the tough AL Central, the Indians will have their hands full, but the lack of attention being paid to them should let them play with less pressure. Their great hitting and steady pitching will lead them to the AL Central crown and to a team worthy of their stadium's mustard. Here's what to expect from the Indians in 2007:

Biggest reason for hope: People forget how good this lineup is. Grady Sizemore may now be the best leadoff hitter in the game. Travis Hafner will start winning MVP awards very soon. Victor Martinez is the best hitting catcher in baseball. Newly acquired (or should I say stolen) second baseman Josh Barfield will be a 25-25 guy. If the triumverate of C.C. Sabathia, Cliff Lee, and Jake Westbrook perform to expectations , and Jeremy Sowers follows up a successful rookie campaign by capably filling the #4 starter role, the Tribe could dominate.

Biggest potential nightmare: Did I mention that Sabathia is knicked up, and bears a striking resemblance to Fat Albert and David Wells? Did I mention that Lee will start the season on the DL? Did I mention that the Indians haven't won the World Series in 59 years? Did I mention that I'm nervous abot my pick?

Player to watch: Jhonny Peralta. In 2005, Peralta's first full season in the bigs was a smashing success. He batted third for the Tribe and had a solid .292-24-78 campaign with a .366 OBP and .520 SLG. However, in 2006 those numbers sunk to .257-13-68, with a .323 OBP and ugly .385 SLG. Perhaps as bad, he got a reputation as being lazy and out of shape, and was dropped to ninth in the order. So will Jhonny be Good in 2007? He's still only 25, and there's time to recover before he turns into the next "fat Elvis" Carlos Baerga.

Why do we still have to watch this player?: Trot Nixon, but only because I wanted him to retire as a Red Sox player. Be good, Trot - I expect you to have the Indian on your cap pine tarred out by Game 2.

Telling Statistic: Looking for a good reason for Cleveland's 15 game decline from 2005 to 2006? In 2005, the bullpen ERA was 2.80 with 15 blown saves and a 77% save percentage. In 2006, the pen's ERA was 4.66, with 23 blown saves and a ghastly 51% save percentage.

Interesting fact signifying nothing: Who has the best lifetime average in Tribe history? Would you believe that it's Shoeless Joe Jackson? Before he was a victim of the Black Sox scandal, he amassed a .374 lifetime average in Cleveland. Just mentioning this fact makes Kevin Costner's nipples a little more erect.

Projected record & finish: 90-72, 1st place, AL Central - lose in ALDS

Prediction that won’t come true but should: Albert Belle comes out of retirement in midseason. His bat has slowed, but he becomes adept at stealing signs via the GPS that he attaches to each visiting manager.

#9 - Minnesota Twins - Close, but Just a Little Creamy Filling Short

Through the years, the Twins have affectionately been referred to as the Twinkies. Like a Twinkie, the Twins are a reasonably affordable product, and don't break down after an extraordinary amount of time. In the Twins case, a good front office, great minor league pipeline, and shrewd trades are responsible for the team's long-term success despite its below $70 million payroll. In the case of a Twinkie, longevity is the result of massive quantites of preservatives. So, I guess the comparison ends there, except to the degree that sponge cake has the same consistency as the Metrodome's Field Turf, but I digress...

The Twins were one of the great success stories of 2006. At 25-33 and 12 1/2 games out of first on June 8, their postseason prospects were as unlikely as Dick Cheney appearing on the Daily Show. However, a 71-33 finish propelled them to the AL Central title. Can they do it again? When you have the reigning MVP and Cy Young winner (Justin Morneau, Johan Santana) and the first catcher to win a batting title since 1942 (take a bow, Joe Mauer), anything is possible.

However, there are questions with this team, starting with the starting pitching. Francisco Liriano is gone for '07 after hearing the dreaded words "Tommy John." Will the Twins have enough for a return to the playoffs? Well, somebody has to be the best team not to make the postseason, and sadly I think the Twins will be that team. However, even if they don't make the playoffs, the Twins' system of developing star players through their minor league system is as strong as ever, and thus they will continue their Twinkie-like staying power. Here's what to expect from the Twins in 2007:

Biggest reason for hope: The above-mentioned superstars. No pitcher means more to his team than Santana does to the Twins. The remaining starters can take comfort in the fact that the Twins have one of the best bullpens in baseball. Closer Joe Nathan (1.58 ERA, 36 saves) is undoubtedly one of the best closers in the business, but perhaps as importantly, the middle and setup guys are top-rate, too. No other team can match the relief depth that Juan Rincon (2.91 ERA) , Jesse Crain (3.52 ERA), Pat Neshek (37 IP, 53 K), lefty specialist Dennys Reyes (0.89 ERA), and long man Matt Guerrier (3.36 ERA) provide.

Biggest potential nightmare: Ramon Ortiz and Sidney Ponson - 40% of the Twins 2007 rotation. Rejoice, opposing batters! Now, Ponson and Ortiz balance each other out weight-wise (they look like Laurel and Hardy next to each other), but in terms of recent success, both are starving. Ponson hasn't had an ERA below 5 since 2003, and his last three years have been good only to MLB batters and Maryland's criminal defense attorney population. Ortiz is back in the AL after 2 years of plus 5 ERAs in the National League. In fairness to Ortiz, though, he is a durable pinata - he's made 63 starts over the past two years (and allowed 65 homers). These guys are supposed to replace Liriano and the retired Brad Radke? That's the equivalent of replacing a flashy Porsche (Liriano) and a steady pickup truck (Radke) with an Adobe (the car made of clay!) and a Krispy Kreme box with 4 tires.

Player to watch: Matt Garza. Garza is Minnesota's next big starting pitching prospect, and is supposedly ready for the majors. While he'll start the season in Triple-A, he could give the rotation the same midseason injection that Santana and Liriano did for the Twins in 2003 and 2006, respectively. Even if he is meduiocre, Garza will be a breath of fresh air for Twins fans traumatized by the Ortiz-Ponson madness.

Why do we still have to watch this player?: I can't find anyone here - every player seems to either have a redeeming quality or is too young to brand as unwatchable. Oh wait, did I mention that the Twins have Sidney Ponson?

Telling Statistic: The Twins led the majors in with a 2.91 ERA from their bullpen. No other team had an ERA under 3, and the next closest American League team was Oakland at 3.60.

Interesting fact signifying nothing: Looking for great deals in Twins history? On November 14, 2003, the Twins dealt catcher A.J. Pierzynski to the Giants for Nathan, Liriano, and Boof Bonser (now Minnesota's #2 starter). Mauer replaced Pierzynski at catcher in Minnesota, while Pierzynski left the Giants after one year via free agency. That splashing sound you hear is a sea of Giants fans jumping into the bay with cement blocks tied around their ankles.

Projected record & finish: 87-75, 2nd place, AL Central

Prediction that won’t come true but should: Team owner Carl "Montgomery Burns" Pohlad decides that his billionaire status means that he can spend a bit more on the team. Twins players arrive on opening day to find lunch boxes in their locker, courtesy of the owner.

#10 - Oakland A's - Will Beanes Sprout in October?

Hello, I'm Billy Beane. In addition to being disarmingly handsome, I also serve as GM of the Oakland A's. Perhaps you've heard of my work? Read Moneyball? Seen my website, www.smugbastard.com? Seen Joe Morgan froth at the mouth at the mention of my name? As you know, I find underappreciated talent and mold it into playoff material at a reasonable price.

The manager? I'm working on eliminating the position altogether, but for now it remains technically necessary. I fired Ken Macha after last season even though he led our team to its first ALCS since 1990 despite an inconsistent offense and a shaky bullpen. How did we get there? Because I recruited a great defensive team! Jackass thought he could get MY glory. I don't even remember the new manager's name - I think I found him at an Amway meeting. Anyway, it's MY team, and I WILL get the credit for it. Did I mention my good looks?

Now I face my biggest task yet. In the offseason, we let our best pitcher (Barry Zito) and our sole productive hitter (Frank Thomas) walk away. So how do we replace them? Well, that's for me to know and for you to find out. Just watch me work my genius again this year. I expect to see you in October, at which point you will praise my abilities thusly. However, once the playoffs start, any Oakland failures are not my fault. Random luck is the reason for my team's playoff failures, not my inability to get a team that's built for the playoffs. Do not question my genius. I'm Billy Beane, bitch. Here's what to expect from the A's this season:

Biggest reason for hope: The A's always seem to win even on a shoestring budget. Even absent Zito, they have a solid starting staff led by Rich Harden, Dan Haren, and several veteran players poised for comeback years, most notably Eric Chavez. At the All-Star break, they assess their needs, make a few deals, and go 50-20 down the stretch. It seems to work this way almost every year.

Biggest potential nightmare: The offense sputters like Sergio Garcia on a putting green. Chavez's struggles continue despite his return to health. Mark Ellis proves that 2005 was a career year. Dan Johnson proves that prospects can fail. Milton Bradley morphs into Carl Everett, in both girth and demeanor. Mike Piazza fails to match Thomas's production. Beane gives up and trades for prospects in July.

Player to watch: Harden. He may be the best "what if" pitcher in baseball not named Wood or Prior. If healthy, he may be the best pitcher in the AL not named Santana, and he could easily take the ace role that Zito abdicated. However, he has only stayed healthy for one complete season, and he's never thrown 200 innings. For the A's to be successful, they need Harden like Milton Bradley needs a Valium.

Why do we still have to watch this player?: Antonio Perez. Lat year, Perez hit .102. with a .185 OBP. and a .204 slugging. and struck out in 45% of his at bats. Yes, that's very bad grammar, but each failure deserved its own sentence fragment.

Telling statistic: The A's made the ALCS in 2006 despite ranking 7th in the AL in OBP and 13th in slugging percentage.

Two interesting facts signifying nothing: The A's are planning on building a new baseball-only stadium in Fremont, CA, and may rename the team either the "Fremont A's" or the "Silicon Valley A's." I've never heard of Fremont, but after doing some research, I've come to find that it has the largest Afghan-American population in the U.S. I'm glad to see that the U.S. is finally giving Afghans the support that the need (sorry about that whole failure to eliminate the Taliban in Afghanistan thing due to allocating our troops to another war - our bad).

Additionally, I attended a game in Oakland last year, and made a fascinating discovery. To the best of my knowledge the A's are the only team that has a Black Panther Tofu Burger food stand. I enjoyed my tofu burger - it was the best food that I ever had that I can say for sure wasn't made by The Man.

Projected record & finish: 87-75, 2nd place, AL West

Prediction that won’t come true but should: In trying to predict proven performance, Beane drafts only players who have retired from the major leagues.

#11 - Toronto Blue Jays - This May Be Their Year, Eh?

Many of you are familiar with Terrance and Phillip, South Park’s Canadian comedy duo. Their jokes are infantile and usually involve flatulence, their talent minimal, and yet they stir up so much hatred and bile in South Park’s overprotective adults that they lead to a war between the United States and Canada. Well, Canada’s only MLB team, the Toronto Blue Jays, are nothing like that. They’re a talented group of players who don’t tend to stir much hatred in their rivals (mainly because New York and Boston fans spend their waking hours attempting to torture the other fan base). Plus, until last year’s second place finish, Toronto hadn’t finished above third place in the AL East since 1993, the year that they last won the World Series.

The Jays have been given permission to open up the wallet the past few years, and they’ve obliged with lavish, semi0outrageous free-agent signings of A.J. Burnett, B.J. Ryan, and Frank Thomas. For good measure, they also signed their MVP, Vernon Wells, to a $126 million extension. That money will go far, Vernon, even when you have to come to the States. The Jays have a good team, and have the potential to win the East. At the very least, the normal two-team AL East dogfight will probably welcome a third member this year. Oh, and the Jays are funnier than Terrance and Phillip, although that’s pretty much by default. Here’s what to expect from the Blue Jays in 2007:

Biggest reason for hope: They may have as much talent as the Yankees and Sox. Their offense is probably better than Boston’s and comparable with New York. Underappreciated Reed Johnson and Lyle Overbay get on base nearly 40 percent of the time, and set the table for run producers Wells, Troy Glaus, and Thomas (welcome back to relevance, Frank!). The staff has two aces in Roy Halladay and Burnett, and even though his contract is ridiculous, was there a better closer in baseball than Ryan (38 SV, 1.37 ERA, 86K, 0.85 WHIP) last year? OK, maybe Papelbon or Mariano, but that’s a debate for another time. The pieces are here.

Biggest potential nightmare: The back end of the rotation is a bit frightening. Tomo Ohka is a good investment, but Gustavo “Beer Goggles” Chacin is more than a bit shaky, no pun intended. I’d also sooner trust Marion Barry with my taxes than Josh Towers with a start every fifth day. There may also be a vacuum in the setup role now that Justin Speier has left. And what if Thomas, Glaus, or Halladay get hurt – again?

Player to watch: Burnett. Many snickered when the Jays signed the oft-injured pitcher who resembles a Motley Crue groupie to a 5 year, $55 million deal last winter (although after the Gil Meche signing, Burnett’s deal seems more reasonable). They may still be snickering. Burnett missed two months with elbow pain that he feared was related to his previous Tommy John surgery. Jays doctors couldn’t diagnose the injury and team management pretty much accused him of being an incredible wuss. There’s no doubt that when healthy, Burnett’s stuff is electric, and with Halladay he could form the best 1-2 starting tandem in the American League. However, he’s still only 59-58 for his career. It’s just as likely that Burnett could be spending July and August getting more body piercings as it is he’ll be mowing down the Sox and Yankees.

Why do we still have to watch this player: Royce Clayton. Clayton is slated to start the year as the Toronto shortstop. The Jays had to go deep into the barrel to find him. If you’re scoring at home (or if even you’re alone), the Jays are Clayton’s 10th team. Absent a decent year in hitter-friendly Colorado in 2004, Clayton hasn’t scored more than 75 runs in any season in his career, and hasn’t had a OPS over .700 since 2001. On the bright side, he’s had four kids since 2001, so at least he’s producing on some level.

Telling Statistic: Toronto was second in the majors in 2006 in OPS, trailing only the Yankees. So it looks like they’ve got that hitting thing down.

Interesting fact signifying nothing: The nickname “Blue Jays” was chosen by Labatt in reference to its beer, Labatt Blue. Labatt’s hope was that fans would refer to the team as the “Blues.” Great marketing, guys. Similarly, I can’t wait for the Red to play the Devil this year.

Projected record & finish: 87-75, 3rd place, AL East

Prediction that won’t come true but should: The Jays win their first pennant since 1993, largely due to their impenetrable defense. The Jays improve when they finally realize that they can play 11 men on the field instead of 9, thanks to the 1.2 to 1 exchange rate with American teams.

#12 - Detroit Tigers - Holding, Folding, or Just Making Cosmetic Changes?

Let's face it - if the Tigers aren't your favorite team, they became your second favorite team last year. This time last year, the team with 12 straight losing seasons (including a Pauly Shore-esque 43-119 campaign in 2003) was expected to improve, but not significantly. The team's biggest acquisition was manager Jim Leyland, who upon taking the job pretty much admitted that he knew nothing about the team or the American League. Fast forward to October, when the 95-win Tigers dispatched the Yankees and the A's in the playoffs, and the Tigers are suddenly hosting Game 1 of the World Series. The blunt, nicotine-soaked manager was once again the toast of baseball, and everybody loved them some Tiger!

Of course, the Tigers were upset in the World Series by the Cardinals (thanks in part due to their pitchers' fielding, which became as erratic as Eminem around Triumph the Insult Comic Dog). Still, the Tigers had much to be proud of in 2006, and their goals in 2007 are higher than the tear ducts on the face of Kenny Rogers (the one on the right, in case you had any doubt) after his most recent face lift. Complicating their task is the daunting task of playing in the toughest division in baseball, the AL Central. The Tigers are pretty much the same team as last year, with the addition of one surly slugger (more on that below). Asking everything to fall into place again may be too muck to ask. Here's what to expect from the Tigers in 2007:

Biggest reason for hope: The core of the AL champs returns in tact, with the addition of Gary Sheffield and his probable 100 RBIs. Their solid rotation is still healthy, with Jeremy Bonderman and Justin Verlander capable of reaching All-Star status. Joel "Guitar Hero" Zumaya and Francisco Rodney will still fool batters with their wicked stuff. There's a lot to like here.

Biggest potential nightmare: The starters don't hold up, particularly Verlander, who faded mightily in his first full season (5.86 ERA in August and September). 41 year-old Kenny Rogers could lose that extra 5 MPH on his fastball and his nasty streak that he magically gained in one week in last year's playoffs (hmmm... additional arm strength and a rapid effect on emotional functioning - what could cause such a thing? Not that I'm accusing, but...). Despite Zumaya being Detroit's best bullpen options, Jim Leyland inexplicably sticks with Todd Jones as his closer. This stubbornness could have long-lasting effects down the road. If you saw the following stats for two players, who would you want to be your closer?

84 IP, 56 H, 42 BB, 97K, 1.94 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, throws 102 MPH
64 IP, 70 H, 11BB, 28K, 3.94 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, throws faster than the maximum speed of certain Segways

I'll give you a hint - the first guy is not the old homophobic mustached guy. Make the switch to #1, Mr. Leyland.

Player to watch: Sheffield. Before an injury-plagued 2006 in Gotham, Sheffield had driven in over 100 runs in six of the past seven seasons. He now brings his potent bat to Detroit, where he is reunited with Leyland, his favorite manager. Anyone who has seen Sheffield swing knows the terror that his bat brings - he has the most violent swing in baseball, and seems to hit the ball harder than anyone. He needs only 45 homers in his career to get to 500. Hard as it is to believe, he's a probable Hall of Famer. Yet, the Tigers are his seventh team, and there's a reason for that. He has left the majority of his previous employers on not-so-pleasant terms, and despite his claims that he's a leader, he is anything but. The more accurate term is melanoma. Now, for the first time in his career, Sheffield will be a full-time DH, with less time in the field and more time to "think." Detroit, be prepared to be diced by the Sheff.

Why do we still have to watch this player?: Neifi Perez. It's OK to keep a no-hit, good glove backup infielder on your team if there are no other options. However, the Tigers have four quality middle infielders in Carlos Guillen, Placido Polanco, Omar Infante, and Ramon Santiago. So why to the Tigers keep Perez? It can't be his lifetime .298 OBP in over 5,000 major league at bats. All I can say is that he must either be a really great practical joker, or he has Mark Foley-esque compromising pictures of Leyland.

Telling Statistic: In 2004, the Tigers were 13th in the American League in ERA. In 2005, they moved up to 8th. Last year, they were 1st. I think I see why they improved (I try not to miss the blatantly obvious).

Interesting fact signifying nothing: The Tigers haven't retired Ty Cobb's number, but there's a good explanation for it - he didn't have a number. Cobb retired in 1921, and numbers weren't put on uniforms until 1929. However, in honor of Cobb, no Tigers player shall have more than 2 consecutive letter "K's" on any portion of their uniform.

Projected record & finish: 86-76, 3rd place, AL Central

Prediction that won’t come true but should: Kenny Rogers sings the national anthem at Comerica Park, but before he can finish he is knocked unconscious by a 109 MPH fastball thrown from the parking lot by the "naturally excited" Kenny Rogers.

#13 - Arizona Diamondbacks - Diamonds in the Rough?

As a general rule, the sequel is never good as the original. Nonetheless, Randy Johnson is returning for a second stint in Arizona, where he excelled from 1999 to 2004 and was a central part of their 2001 World Series championship. Johnson forced a trade to the Yankees basically to get paid, but then had two, ahem, underwhelming years there. You'll notice that there haven't been many tears in the Yankees clubhouse over the Big Unit's loss, mainly because... hmm, how to say this gently... he's an incredible dick.

The Unit is known to isolate himself from his temmates, and can't conduct any conversation in a civil tone. Heck, he even tried to stiff his daughter on her child support despite making $16 million per year. Although he's now a born-again Christian, he can't even get along with Ned Flanders. However, now that he's out of the New York spotlight, there will be fewer media types to remind him of his jerk-dom, so he'll be more at peace, and that may mean better results for the Unit. However, if you're in the greater Phoenix area, I don't advide bringing a camera - cameras make Johnson angry. He doesn't get big and green like the Incredible Hulk, but I think his mullet grows a few inches every time he gets furious.

Johnson is an old man amongst a sea of baby D-Backs, and that's not a bad thing. No team has as many youngsters ready to make the jump to stardom as Arizona. In the mediocre NL West, that could mean a playoff berth in 2007. At the very least, it looks like the D-Backs have an impressive foundation that will allow them to compete for a long time. If you're looking for the Tigers of 2007, the D-Backs may be your bet (although I'm going with another sleeper - more on that next week). Here's what to expect from the D-Backs in 2007:

Biggest reason for hope: The everyday lineup will have five everyday players under 25 with top-shelf potential. Shortstop Stephen Drew hit .316 and slugged .517 in his first seaon in Arizona (hopefully he's less brittle than his brother J.D.). First baseman Conor Jackson hit 15 homers and knocked in 79 runs in his first full major league season and is seen as a 30 homer, 100 RBI guy for years to come. The D-Backs were so confident in catching prospect Miguel Montero that they traded their .300 hitting starting catcher, Johnny Estrada, to the Brewers. Chris Young and Carlos Quentin will man the outfield, and could be batting 3-4 in the lineup by July. Add to the youth blend utilityman Alberto Callaspo, the most impressive player in D-Backs spring training, and you have a great young nucleus. If these guys hit, and the D-Backs veteran-laden rotation (Johnson, reigning Cy Young award winner Brandon Webb, Doug Davis, and Livan Hernandez) pitches to their abilities, they could be scary.

Biggest potential nightmare: The kids struggle early and lose confidence. Johnson looks 43 years old, and Hernandez resembles an overweight batting practice pitcher. The bullpen can't hold a lead. Johnson's favorite postgame quote is "do you know who I am?"

Player to watch: Jorge Julio. Young teams have to learn how to win. As part of that process, a good closer can go a long way towards increasing a team's confidence. Enter Julio, he of the 100 MPH fastball but the confidence of a 12 year-old at the Neverland Ranch. Last year was typical Julio - 88 strikeouts in only 66 innings, but he allowed 10 homers and blew 20% of his save opportunities. For the D-Backs to win, they need a consistent closer. They may already realize that isn't Julio, as he's rumored to be on the trading block. If Julio isn't the man, Jose Valverde or Brandon Lyon will likely inherit the closer hot seat.

Why do we still have to watch this player?: Eric Byrnes. Yes, Byrnes is a respectable player - he hit 26 home runs and stole 25 bases while playing a good defensive outfielder. But I'm using the term "watch" quite literally, in that Byrnes has the worst hair in baseball. It looks like a muskrat died on his head. And remember in the 2003 ALCS when he gave Jason Varitek a sissy-boy shove while forgetting to touch home plate? (Varitek's response - calmly get the ball, then run to the dugout and tag Byrnes - that's just one reason why I'll always love Varitek). So, he's a punk, too. Go away, Eric, or at least get a comb.

Telling Statistic: Webb has led the National League for three straight years in ground ball-to-fly ball ratio, due to his devastating sinker. For his career, he has allowed a home run every 13.1 innings. By contrast, Julio has allowed a home run every 6.9 innings.

Interesting fact signifying nothing: The D-Backs are unveiling new uniforms and caps in 2007. Gone are the purple, teal and copper hues, and in are red and black. So, the D-Backs are going away from the semi-artsy colors and replacing them with colors signifying blood and death, respectively. I'm sure it's just a coincidence that they made these changes and then immediately acquired Johnson.

Projected record & finish: 86-76, 2nd place, NL West

Prediction that won’t come true but should: The D-Backs star in a sequel to Animal House, with the young talent playing the roles of the frat boys, Byrnes in the John Belushi role, and Johnson as Dean Wormer.

#14 - San Diego Padres - Staying Classy, Boomer Excluded

I've never been to San Diego, but everyone that I know who has visited loves the place. The weather's great, the people are laid back, it's a good cultural city, and there's just a good vibe around the place. I guess the word that I associate most with the city of San Diego is "nice." It just seems to be pleasant all around (even though David "Boomer" Wells is once again a resident).

Like their home city, the Padres are a "nice" team. They're a decent collection of good players who also seem to be decent human beings (again, Wells and his physique sponsored by Rolling Rock excluded), and they have a good shot at the playoffs this year. If you're not a Padres fan, you don't hate them, and you probably kind of like them (Dodgers and Giants fans excluded). It's a passive like that says "hey, I like your style - you're good but not overly threatening to my favorite team." Like the nice guy who never gets the hot chick, the Padres are the nice group of guys who never get to the top of the mountain. Even though they frequently compete for a playoff berth, you never think of them as a World Series contender. Their two World Series appearances almost seemed like accidents, like they got in over their head. They're too laid back and pleasant for that level of glory.

The Padres will compete in the weak NL West in 2007. Will they make the playoffs for the third consecutive year? I say that they'll just be edged out, but I could be wrong. 85-88 wins could win the NL West again this year, and they're capable of that. Regardless, the Pads are guaranteed to put a small smile on the faces of their fans at Kitty Litter Stadium this year (not that they wouldn't be smiling anyway). Here's what to expect from the Padres in 2007:

Biggest reason for hope: The Padres may have the best 1-11 pitching staff in the NL West, and possibly all of the National League. If Jake Peavy returns to form, he will form a nice under-30 front of the rotation with Clay Hensley and Chris Young. Filling out the back of the rotation are the immortal Greg Maddux and the immortally idiotic-yet-effective Wells. Both are in their 40s, but both still seem to have something left. The bullpen is anchored by the ageless Trevor Hoffman, with top setup men Cla Meredith (1.07 ERA in '06 - by the way - nice trade, Theo) and Scott Linebrink, who would close for about 15 other teams. Add to this that new manager Bud Black is one of the game's mos respected pitching minds, and you have the makings of dominance. In pitchers friendly Kitty Litter Park, the Padres could win a lot of 3-2 games.

Biggest potential nightmare: Wells and Maddux pitch like they're a combined 85 years old, Peavy has another over 4.00 ERA season, and the offense doesn't perform to expectations. Brian Giles is not the dominant offensive presence that he used to be - he's more of a tablesetter at this point in his career. Thus, the pressure's on guys such as Adrian Gonzalez and Josh Bard to pick up the slack. Additionally, can Marcus Giles fill the fleet shoes of Dave Roberts (now with the Giants) in the leadoff spot? If they don't, the Padres could sputter worse than Michael Richards at the Apollo.

Player to watch: Kevin Kouzmanoff. The Padres raised a lot of eyebrows in the offseason when they traded future All-Star second baseman Josh Barfield to the Indians for Kouzmanoff, who will likely be the Padres Opening Day third baseman. The Padres gave up a young five-tool player with proven success at the major league level for a career .332 hitter in the minors with ggreat upside, but who has only had a cup of coffee in the bigs. To avoid Barfield comparisons, Kouzmanoff will need to produce right away. Otherwise, Kevin, the fans in San Diego will be chanting "Boo," and not "Kooooz."

Why do we still have to watch this player?: Manny Alexander. As you may recall, Alexander was once such a prospect that the the Orioles found it necessary to move Cal Ripken from shortstop to third base to accommodate him. That was pretty much Alexander's career highlight (other than steroids being found in his car). Alexander is 36 now, and has a lifetime average of .231 with a .282 OBP. He has not stolen a base since 1999, and makes his career as a utilityman. Doesn't every team have a AAA guy who could handle the utility infield role as well as Manny Alexander? If there's a nuclear attack on San Diego, the only survivors will be cockroaches and Alexander.

Telling Statistic: The Padres have won 170 games over the past two years, which is the lowest two-year total for a team that has made the playoffs for those two consecutive seasons.

Interesting fact signifying nothing: Notable former Padres include Tony Gwynn, and Gaylord Perry, and John Kruk. In a related story, the Padres had no trouble in finding a jersey big enough for Wells.

Projected record & finish: 84-78, 3rd place, NL West

Prediction that won’t come true but should: Gwynn's Baseball Hall of Fame induction ceremony is overshadowed by Padres shortstop Khalil Greene, who on the same day is inducted into the White Guys with Black Names Hall of Fame.

Addandum - two days after I wrote this, Wells revealed that he has Type 2 diabetes. He says that he has radically altered his lifestyle, and that he's a changed man because he's not into losing appendages down the road. I wish him well in his recovery. I also hope that his newfound lifestyle changes will reflect positively on other parts of his body, most notably his brain.

#15 - New York Mets - Say, Hey, Where's the Pitching?

Pedro Martinez may have an imperial daddy, but right now the Mets would desperately take this wayward son, but for his health. Last year, Pedro's rotator cuff ouchie may have cost the Mets a trip to the World Series, and after surgery, the earliest that he will return is around the All-Star Break. Such is the danger with damaged goods, as good as they may be (if only the Mets made him take an MRI...).

It's been a rough year for Pedro with his injury and with the death of his "little friend." But at least we know that Pedro still has friends to talk with: his tulips and daffodils. Yes, Pedro is quite the gardener, and he talks to his plants on a regular basis. He used to have petunias, but he had to brush them back after they talked smack to him.

The Mets will sorely miss Pedro, as their starting staff is thinner than Nicole Richie. Their offense will once again be impressive, but the lack of pitching could prove fatal to the Shea faithful. It's probably unrealistic to expect the Mets to have the National League's best record, and absent a trade or a rookie coming up big, they'll miss the playoffs. Here's what to expect from the Mets in 2007.

Biggest reason for hope: The offense scores 900 runs, and they win a lot of 9-7 bludgeonfests. Here's your projected Mets 2007 lineup:
Jose Reyes, SS - .300, 126 RS, 19 HR, 64 SB in 2006
Paul LoDuca, C - Capable #2, struck out only 38 times in '06
Carlos Delgado, 1B - did you know he has 407 career homers?
Carlos Beltran, CF - 41 HR, 116 RBI, Gold Glove in '06
David Wright, 3B - .311, 26 HR, 116 RBI, charming smile in '06
Moises Alou, LF - older than God, but still hit .301 with 22 homers in '06
Shawn Green, RF - the greatest Jewish outfielder of our time
Jose Valentin, 2B - 18 HR, .490 slugging in '06

Oh my, that's good. So the Mets are set, right? Well, that's assuming that the pitching holds up...

Biggest potential nightmare: The staff can't prevent opponents from scoring 10 runs a game. Let's look at the rotation shall we? Absent Pedro, we start with Tom Glavine, who'll be 41 by opening day. Following that, it's El Duque, who missed the 2006 playoffs and is 37 (wink, wink). After that it's ... hmm... well, I'm not sure. John Maine? Promising-but-untested Mike Pelfrey? Oliver Perez? (Mets fans shudder). Chan Ho Park? (fans shaking increasingly) Aaron Sele? (cardiac episode!). There's a reason that Wille Randolph got carpal tunnel syndrome from repeated motions to the bullpen last year, and Randolph runs the risk of burning out his bullpen early if the patchwork rotation comes apart.

Player to watch: Reyes. As great as Wright is, Reyes may be the most exciting player in MLB today. He still needs to learn to take more pitches, but his combination of average, power, speed, and defense are a joy to watch. Have I mentioned he's only 23?

Why do we still have to watch this player?: Guillermo Mota. After seeing his career fizzle over the past few seasons, Mota enjoyed a renaissance when he was dealt to the Mets before the trading deadline and was a key member of their bullpen in the playoffs after the loss of Duaner Sanchez. How did he do it? Hard work, a dominating fastball, and an anabolic infusion. Yep, steroids. Mota is suspended for the first 50 games of the 2007 season, but his steroid-infused arm got a 2-year, $5 million contract from the Mets five weeks after the suspension was announced. So, if you're looking for a message to pass onto the children, it's that crime does pay, or that it's OK to use steroids as long as you don't hit homers.

Telling Statistic: Maine, Perez, Park and Sele combined to go 24-31 in 2006. Three of these pitchers could constitute 60% of the Mets 2007 starting rotation.

Interesting fact signifying nothing: Julio Franco is the only active MLB player who was born in the 1950's. He will be 49 in August. He is older than over half of the members of the Mets 1986 World Championship team. He's the oldest player ever to hit a home run and a to hit a grand slam. He stole six bases last season. He's so old that Willie Randolph told Franco to act his age, at which point he died. Seriously, I marvel at what he's done. Franco plans on playing until he's 50. I just hope to have some feeling in all of my extremities by then.

Projected record & finish: 84-78, 2nd place, NL East

Prediction that won’t come true but should: Short on arms, the Mets sign Mr. Met to fill out their rotation. Mr. Met immediately becomes the player with the second-biggest head in baseball, behind only Barry Bonds.

#16 - Chicago White Sox - Ozzfest - It %$#@&* Rocks!

"Seriously, you had me at 'Jay Mariotti is a f%g.'"

Yes, it's time for another season of Ozzieball, complete with all of the hustle, passion, profanity and homophobic slurs that comes with it. After a historic, lip-smacking World Series victory in 2005, the White Sox were playing with house money in 2006. Despite winning 90 games, the Sox finished out of the playoffs. Nonetheless, they were still 24 games better than the Cubs, and their future remains bright.

In the offseason, GM Ken Williams made some controversial yet intriguing moves, trading starters Freddy Garcia and Brandon McCarthy for a collection of good pitching prospects. Most of these players will help the White Sox eventually, but the question remains how much they'll help in 2007. While these moves may pay dividends for the 2009 White Sox, it probably won't for this year's bunch, especially in the uber-tough AL Central. I see a roughly .500 team here. Now if you'll excuse me, I have to pull out my Spanish to English dictionary to see what Ozzie just called me. Here's what to expect from the White Sox in 2007:

Biggest reason for hope: The strong lineup and "big 3" of Jose Contreras (no, how old are you REALLY?), Mark Buehrle, and Jon Garland keep them in the race. Assuming that Jermaine Dye, Paul Konerko, Joe Crede and Jim Thome stay healthy, the White Sox have a middle of the lineup as good as anyone in baseball.

Biggest potential nightmare: The new kids come in and get crushed, losing their confidence. In particular, Gavin Floyd, the probable No. 5 starter, is known to have confidence issues. I'm sure Ozzie will be very patient with Floyd, so long as Floyd can withstand being called approximately 27 euphemisms for the word "gay." Or Floyd can simply get Guillen's respect by drilling every batter in sight. That usually works.

Player to watch: Charlie Haeger. Who, you ask? Haeger is a 23 year-old knuckleballer who has an excellent chance of making the Chicago staff. I'm a sucker for knuckleballers - they eat innings, they pitch until they're 45, and it seems that anyone can throw the pitch regardless of athletic build. Now if you'll excuse me, I'm going to wander outside and throw a few balls.

Why do we still have to watch this player?: Javier Vazquez. Vazquez just signed a 3 year, $34.5 million extension to stay in Chicago. This move seemed odd, particularly given the fact that Buerhle and Garland are free agents after the season. A bigger issue is why the Sox would invest so much in a mediocre commodity and a #4 starter at best. In his last three seasons, Vazquez is 36-37 with a 4.72 ERA. He also not a kid anymore - he'll be 31 this season. He's durable, but so is my lawnmower, and it doesn't mow the grass all that well. OK, maybe Vazquez is watchable, but he's certainly not elite anymore.

Telling Statistic: As great as the starters were for the Sox in 2005, their unheralded bullpen was a key strength. In 2006, that strength became a weakness, as their bullpen ERA rose from 3.23 to 4.53. There's a reason that Bobby "Super Size Me" Jenks is the only holdover from the 2005 pen.

Interesting fact signifying nothing: In 1976, the White Sox wore shorts for one game, at which point the look was quickly retired (sliding can be painful that way). This ranks as the 4th most embarrassing incident in White Sox history, trailing only Disco Demolition Night, the Black Sox scandal, and allowing A.J. Pierzynski to represent the team at functions.

Projected record & finish: 82-80, 4th Place, AL Central

Prediction that won’t come true but should: Ozzie Guillen and John Amaechi are spotted together at a Madonna concert at the United Center in July.

#17 - Atlanta Braves - A Brave New World - Chopped Down from First Place

The Braves are the chosen team of many powerful people - Ted Turner, Jane Fonda, Elton John, Jeff Foxworthy (you might be a redneck if you wear a Braves hat to a wedding), and of course Jimmy Carter. Seriously, you know that your team is powerful when the 39th Presidentis in your corner. I look forward to his new baseball book - Atlanta: Pennants, Not Apartheid. Apartheid is Jimmy's favorite term to describe (1) the Israeli occupation of Palestine, and (2) the Mets.

The Braves are still in shock that they weren't invited to the playoffs last year, as they thought it was an annual rite of fall. The Braves failed to win the NL East for the first time since 1990, and the Braves are looking to start a new playoff streak in 2007. Will they? Possibly, but a lot of things have to fall into place. The Braves are likely looking at being home in October, which is OK because President Carter will need a few strapping young lads for his latest Habitat for Humanity project. Here's what to expect from the Braves in 2007:

Biggest reason for hope: The Braves pitching can compete with anyone in the National League. The rotation has 3 solid starters in John Smoltz, Chuck James, and Tim Hudson (assuming he can get his mojo back). In the offseason, the Braves acquired Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez to set up Bob Wickman. Both Soriano and Gonzalez could close for many other teams and could provide a dominating late-inning presence. Of course, the pitching coach is Roger McDowell and not Leo Mazzone, so there's a chance that the pitchers will be spending more time avoiding whoopee cushions than working on their mechanics.

Biggest potential nightmare: The Braves lineup has some holes after the Jones boys and Brian McCann. Marcus Giles and Adam LaRoche found new homes in the offseason, and in their place will be Scott Thorman and Martin Prado. Raise your hand if you know either of them. Of course, the Braves produce prospects as quickly as Tom Brady reproduces, so these guys may pay off. Still, the offense looks a bit thin, and it will be interesting to see if Bobby Cox will need to make lemonade from lemons.

Player to watch: Jeff Francoeur. While he drove in 103 runs last year, Francouer continued his impatient ways. He walked only 23 times while striking out 132 times, and his OBP was a paltry .293. At 23, he still has the potential to be a top-tier hitter. However, until he learns to take a pitch, he'll keep seeing sliders in the dirt and fastballs at eye level. Apparently, whenever the Braves coaches try to talk to Francouer about it, he just swings a bat wildly at them. Mind you, he's not trying to hurt them - he's just used to swinging at anything.

Why do we still have to watch this player?: There actually aren't any horribly offensive players on the roster. However, if I had to pick someone, it'd be Joey Devine, because (1) he has a lifetime ERA of 11.12 (albeit in only 11 innings), and (2) he scares me because he sounds like someone who may have an Uncle Paulie Walnuts.

Telling Statistic: Andruw Jones has 92 home runs and 257 RBIs over the past two seasons. He has 342 career homers, and he doesn't turn 30 until next month. Is he a Hall of Famer? Yes, both in Cooperstown and at the Gold Club.

Interesting fact signifying nothing: The Braves are the only team to win the World Series in three different home cities, Boston, Milwaukee, and Atlanta. They are also the only team to once employ a deer to patrol center field.

Projected record & finish: 82-80, 3rd Place, NL East

Prediction that won’t come true but should: Realizing that the name is offensive to Native Americans, Atlanta drops the Braves name. Looking for something less offensive, the team accepts corporate sponsorship and changes its name to the Atlanta Hooters. Chipper Jones approves.

#18 - Colorado Rockies - Jesus Is My Co-Pilot, But Can He Be My Center Fielder?

The Colorado Rockies are not your ordinary, sinful group of young, athletic men. No, they are guided by a higher power (and that's not a reference to sea level). In 2006, the Rockies became the first MLB team to publicly embrace a Christian-based code of conduct . Gone are swear words and mistresses. In are daily prayer meetings and Steven Curtis Chapman. David Wells must be appalled.

Now look, I think that it's great that the Rockies have actively embraced a solid moral code of conduct. It's a refreshing change from the daily stories that we see about athletes getting drunk, high, abusive, arrested, "making it rain," and/or embracing a thug mentality (or in the case of Pacman Jones, all of the above). However, there's always a danger with these types of codes that (1) there's constant prostelitizing by some on others who aren't receptive to the message, or (2) the team assumes that they're somehow preordained by a higher power to win a game. God doesn't care who wins a sporting event, period. God may allow you to perform to the maximum of your abilities, but winning or losing is a separate issue. If He did care about that, don't you think that Vegas would bet more heavily on Christians?

As to the first issue, the Rockies are saying all the right things in that they don't push their issues on others. Since I can't disprove this statement, I'll give it the benefit of the doubt (although I'm skeptical). However, they've already failed the second test. Here's what Rockies GM Dan O'Dowd said after the Rockies' surprising 2006 start:

"You look at things that have happened to us this year. You look at some of the moves we made and didn't make. You look at some of the games we're winning. Those aren't just a coincidence. God has definitely had a hand in this."

From that point on, the Rockies went 49-62. "God resisteth the proud, but giveth grace to the humble... Humble yourselves in the sight of the Lord, and He will lift you up." James 4:6,10. Mr. O'Dowd, meet King James. King James, Mr. O'Dowd.

The Rockies are an interesting team, regardless of their inspiration. They have a good amount of young talent, and it looks like they're finally learning how to pitch in Coors Field (although the baseballs in the humidor probably help). Nonetheless, they're a team to watch. Will they win this year? Probably not, but in the weak NL West, you never know. Here's what to expect from the Rockies in 2007:

Biggest reason for hope: The Rockies have built a nice core of young players who will be together for years to come. Matt Holliday is already a star, and Brad Hawpe and Garrett Atkins are on the cusp of stardom. They also have a few good young pitchers (Jeff Francis, Aaron Cook) and a solid closer in Brian Fuentes, all of whom actually pitch well in Coors Field. They also stole Jason Hirsh and Taylor Buchholz from the Astros (for Jason Jennings), who both should be major players in the Rockies staff in the seasons to come.

Biggest potential nightmare: The pitching reverts to its pre-2006 days. For all the talent, this year's pitching may be more precarious than a human pyramid of drunks. While Colorado made the right move in dealing Jennings, Buchholz and Hirsh may not be able to contribute much in 2007. In order to be competitive, the Rockies are relying on guys like Brian Lawrence and Byung-Hyun Kim, which is Korean for "tape measure shot."

Player to watch: Todd Helton. Once the heart of the Rockies, he now may just be the spleen. Helton's lifetime OPS is an amazing 1.023, but in 2006 it was a career low .880. His home run total also dropped to 15. In the offseason, the Rockies explored dealing his gigantic salary to Boston. Was 2006 a one-year abberation due to a persisting stomach ailment, or is it the beginning of a steady decline of a 33 year-old hitter? Or has the Lord simply forsaken him?

Why do we still have to watch this player?: Kim. It seems like just yesterday he was weeping on the mound at Yankee Stadium, flipping off the Fenway faithful, and constantly whining about not being a starter. Well, the Rockies have granted him his wish. The results? Over the last two years, Kim is 13-24 with a 5.23 ERA. Something tells me that the fans in Arizona and Boston are nostalgic and saluting Kim for his work - with one finger.

Telling Statistic: Aaron Cook holds the franchise's all-time record for lowest career ERA at 4.58. Picking a great Rockies pitcher is like picking a great moment in Warren Harding's presidency.

Interesting fact signifying nothing: With the Diamondbacks changing their color scheme this year, the Rockies are the only team that uses purple as a major uniform color. Unfortunately, this has led to fashion oopsies like this, where the Rockies look like a bunch of Grimaces joining a motorcyle gang.

Projected record & finish: 80-82, 4th Place, NL West

Prediction that won’t come true but should: The Rockies go into September with the best record in baseball, but everything changes when the entire team is Raptured on September 10. The other 29 teams remain intact.

#19 - Texas Rangers - No Buck, No Expectations, No Problem!

Like James Van DerBeek and Ashton Kutcher, the Texas Rangers were pretty faces full of potential. However, in both cases, potential has been replaced by low expectations. For Van Der Beek and Kutcher, that still means that they can make a film with Kevin Costner for $10 million. However, for the baseball Rangers, they have been relegated to second-tier status in the American League. 7 losing years in 8 seasons will do that.

Give the Rangers credit for trying a new approach, though. Gone is Buck Showalter, a control freak who micromanaged every aspect of the Rangers, including dress codes, pregame spreads, and one can only assume, the proper way to wipe one's bottom in the bathroom. In his place is loosey-goosey Ron Washington, who is to Showalter what a hippie would be to a Marine. The Rangers will undoubtedly be a more relaxed team in 2007, but will that make them better? Perhaps, but it seems that the personnel may not be enough to compete with the big boys - yet. At least the Rangers' future looks brighter than that of Ashton Kutcher (who is one step from making a movie with Carrot Top, but I digress...). here's what to expect from the Rangers in 2007:

Biggest reason for hope: The best infield in baseball resides in Arlington. Michael Young in a guarantee for 200 hits and 100 runs,a nd just got an $80 million extension. Hank Blalock is a steady third baseman and a consistent run producer. Ian Kinsler had a good rookie season and is poised to become a 25 homer, 85 RBI guy. Mark Texiera is simply one of the great mashers in baseball, averaging 38 homers and 122 RBIs the past three seasons. Their defense is solid, too, and Ron Washington's expertise is in teaching infield defense, so the rich are getting richer. If there were no outfielders, pitchers, and catchers, the Rangers would win the World Series. Alas, they decided to put an outfield fence and pitchers mound at Ameriquest Field.

Biggest potential nightmare: It's a story as old as the Bible itself - a shortage of pitching. OK, I'm referring to Nolan Ryan's Pitchers Bible and not the King James version, but you get the idea. It always seems that the Rangers are at least two starters short, and this year is no different. Kevin Millwood and Brandon McCarthy (who was acquired from the White Sox in a potential steal of a deal) anchor the rotation, but after that it's iffy. Vicente Padilla is known for being lazy, surly, and having a problem with alcohol, and yet the Rangers gave him $11 million per year. In response to the deal, the Cristal Corporation has agreed to start bottling their beverage in Gatorade containers so that Padilla can get replenished between innings. After that, it's Robinson Tejeda, and then ... well, your guess is as good as mine. If the Rangers can get to the bullpen unscathed, they'll be OK, but that's a huge if.

Player to watch: Some guy named Sosa. After taking 2006 off to clear his head (and his bloodstream?), slammin' Sammy is back. Can he come close to his late 90's post-jeri curl peak, or will he be closer to the washed-up Oriole who was behind every fastball in 2005? And perhaps most importantly, did he take his year off to re-learn English after mysteriously losing his fluency in March of 2005? Who knows, with a few successful seasons, Sosa can join Juan Gonzalez, Jose Canseco, Pudge Rodriguez and Rafael Palmeiro on the list of great Rangers sluggers. Those greats even left a few syringes for you in the bathroom stall, Sammy. Use with cuidado.

Why do we still have to watch this player?: Frank Francisco. A once-promising reliever, Francisco was suspended for 15 games in 2004 for his role in a fight in Oakalnd. And just for the record, it wasn't any normal fight - it involved going into the stands, and Francisco ignited the fracas by throwing a chair WWF-style into the stands at Oakland Coliseum (and breaking a woman's nose). Since this disreputable incident, Francisco has only pitched 7 innings in 2 seasons due to injury. Now, he's trying to come back. Frankie, do you believe in karma or divine justice? If so, you may want to retire before an asteroid strikes you while you're on the mound.

Telling Statistic: The Rangers have never won a playoff series. They've made the playoffs on three occasions (1996, 1998, 1999), but lost to the Yankees each time. Upset by these losses, former owner George W. Bush decided to take another job where he could wreak vengeance on Yankees while favoring Texans.

Interesting fact signifying nothing: After his dismissal from Texas, Buck Showalter has now been fired as a manager three times. The first two times he was fired, the teams that fired him won the World Series the next season (Yankees in 1996 and Diamondbacks in 2001). So if the Rangers win it all in 2006, they may want to consider sending him a fruit basket or something.

Projected record & finish: 79-83, 3rd Place, AL West

Prediction that won’t come true but should: Fed up with the sweltering summers in Arlington, the Rangers decide to install air conditioning at Ameriquest Field. However, showing the energy conservation that Texans are known for, they do not install a roof on the park. Al Gore immediately goes on a hunger strike.