I've never been to San Diego, but everyone that I know who has visited loves the place. The weather's great, the people are laid back, it's a good cultural city, and there's just a good vibe around the place. I guess the word that I associate most with the city of San Diego is "nice." It just seems to be pleasant all around (even though David "Boomer" Wells is once again a resident).Like their home city, the Padres are a "nice" team. They're a decent collection of good players who also seem to be decent human beings (again, Wells and his physique sponsored by Rolling Rock excluded), and they have a good shot at the playoffs this year. If you're not a Padres fan, you don't hate them, and you probably kind of like them (Dodgers and Giants fans excluded). It's a passive like that says "hey, I like your style - you're good but not overly threatening to my favorite team." Like the nice guy who never gets the hot chick, the Padres are the nice group of guys who never get to the top of the mountain. Even though they frequently compete for a playoff berth, you never think of them as a World Series contender. Their two World Series appearances almost seemed like accidents, like they got in over their head. They're too laid back and pleasant for that level of glory.
The Padres will compete in the weak NL West in 2007. Will they make the playoffs for the third consecutive year? I say that they'll just be edged out, but I could be wrong. 85-88 wins could win the NL West again this year, and they're capable of that. Regardless, the Pads are guaranteed to put a small smile on the faces of their fans at Kitty Litter Stadium this year (not that they wouldn't be smiling anyway). Here's what to expect from the Padres in 2007:
Biggest reason for hope: The Padres may have the best 1-11 pitching staff in the NL West, and possibly all of the National League. If Jake Peavy returns to form, he will form a nice under-30 front of the rotation with Clay Hensley and Chris Young. Filling out the back of the rotation are the immortal Greg Maddux and the immortally idiotic-yet-effective Wells. Both are in their 40s, but both still seem to have something left. The bullpen is anchored by the ageless Trevor Hoffman, with top setup men Cla Meredith (1.07 ERA in '06 - by the way - nice trade, Theo) and Scott Linebrink, who would close for about 15 other teams. Add to this that new manager Bud Black is one of the game's mos respected pitching minds, and you have the makings of dominance. In pitchers friendly Kitty Litter Park, the Padres could win a lot of 3-2 games.
Biggest potential nightmare: Wells and Maddux pitch like they're a combined 85 years old, Peavy has another over 4.00 ERA season, and the offense doesn't perform to expectations. Brian Giles is not the dominant offensive presence that he used to be - he's more of a tablesetter at this point in his career. Thus, the pressure's on guys such as Adrian Gonzalez and Josh Bard to pick up the slack. Additionally, can Marcus Giles fill the fleet shoes of Dave Roberts (now with the Giants) in the leadoff spot? If they don't, the Padres could sputter worse than Michael Richards at the Apollo.
Player to watch: Kevin Kouzmanoff. The Padres raised a lot of eyebrows in the offseason when they traded future All-Star second baseman Josh Barfield to the Indians for Kouzmanoff, who will likely be the Padres Opening Day third baseman. The Padres gave up a young five-tool player with proven success at the major league level for a career .332 hitter in the minors with ggreat upside, but who has only had a cup of coffee in the bigs. To avoid Barfield comparisons, Kouzmanoff will need to produce right away. Otherwise, Kevin, the fans in San Diego will be chanting "Boo," and not "Kooooz."
Why do we still have to watch this player?: Manny Alexander. As you may recall, Alexander was once such a prospect that the the Orioles found it necessary to move Cal Ripken from shortstop to third base to accommodate him. That was pretty much Alexander's career highlight (other than steroids being found in his car). Alexander is 36 now, and has a lifetime average of .231 with a .282 OBP. He has not stolen a base since 1999, and makes his career as a utilityman. Doesn't every team have a AAA guy who could handle the utility infield role as well as Manny Alexander? If there's a nuclear attack on San Diego, the only survivors will be cockroaches and Alexander.
Telling Statistic: The Padres have won 170 games over the past two years, which is the lowest two-year total for a team that has made the playoffs for those two consecutive seasons.
Interesting fact signifying nothing: Notable former Padres include Tony Gwynn, and Gaylord Perry, and John Kruk. In a related story, the Padres had no trouble in finding a jersey big enough for Wells.
Projected record & finish: 84-78, 3rd place, NL West
Prediction that won’t come true but should: Gwynn's Baseball Hall of Fame induction ceremony is overshadowed by Padres shortstop Khalil Greene, who on the same day is inducted into the White Guys with Black Names Hall of Fame.
Addandum - two days after I wrote this, Wells revealed that he has Type 2 diabetes. He says that he has radically altered his lifestyle, and that he's a changed man because he's not into losing appendages down the road. I wish him well in his recovery. I also hope that his newfound lifestyle changes will reflect positively on other parts of his body, most notably his brain.
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