Pity the Philly sports fan. It has been almost 24 years since the city of Philadelphia has seen a major team win a championship (sorry, the Philadelphia Kixx don't count), the largest drought of any city with teams from four major sports. It's enough to make a fan want to hit Santa with snowballs and/or broken bottles, but I suspect that Philly fans don't believe in Santa at this point. So, I can understand Philly's skepticism over Jimmy Rollins's statement that the Phillies are the "team to beat" in the NL East. Considering that the Phillies haven't made the playoffs since 1993, Rollins's boast might seem like a dark omen to the Philly faithful.
But as a detached observer, I'm here to reassure the good people of Philadelphia that the Phillies are indeed the best team in the NL East. While they may not have the best pitching staff or lineup in the division, they have the most balance of any of the NL East brethren. I think that you'll see the Phillies in October doing something other than filming promos for the 2008 season. So have faith, Philly faithful, and please now put the weapon down ... slowly. Here's what to expect from the Phillies in 2007.
Biggest reason for hope: The Phils have starting pitching depth that no other divisional rival can match. With six quality major league starters (Jon Lieber will have to go to the bullpen), eating up innings should not be an issue. Freddy Garcia was a great offseason pickup (both for his pitching ability and the intimidation factor that comes from looking like The Rock), Cole Hamels has the potential to win 15-20 games, and Jamie Moyer will seemingly be effective until he's 50. With a potent lineup including some power hitter named Howard, Chase Utley, booable but productive Pat Burrell, and Rollins, the team is built to go 162.
Biggest potential nightmare: While the starters can go deep, they may have to given the relatively thin bullpen. Tom Gordon is an effective yet fragile closer, and there's no clear setup man in front of him. Perhaps it's Antonio Alfonseca, who can pitch 75 games a year and is the only MLB player who can give a teammate a "high six." Ideally, the Phils will trade Lieber for a setup guy, but if not, there could be problems. Oh, and did I mention that Charlie Manuel sounds like Forrest Gump? That wouldn't give me a lot of faith in my team's manager, although I would take one of his chocolates if he offered it to me.
Player to watch: Brett Myers. Myers has the best stuff of any Phillies pitcher, and agreed to a 3-year, $26 million extension in the offseason. However, Myers is still somewhat of an enigma who may not have the mental makeup to be a #1 starter. He does, however, have the mental makeup to hit his wife in public. Yep, that'd make me want to give a guy $26 million guaranteed. It's a "prove it" year for Myers, and by "prove it," I mean both to the Phillies and to law enforcement officers.
Why do we still have to watch this player?: Third Baseman Abraham Nunez hit .211 and had an OPS below .600 in 322 at-bats last year in Philly. Yet, he'll be back on this year's roster and still play a fair amount of third base. Did we mention that the Phillies had Scott Rolen at third four short years ago?
Telling statistic: People have a misconception that Citizens Bank Park is a power hitters park. Well, let's look at the stats, shall we? In 2006, 233 homers were hit in Philly, the most of any NL stadium, while teams allowed 204 homers in Phillies road games. So... I guess it isn't a misconception at all. My bad.
Interesting fact signifying nothing: Howard hit 58 homers at the age of 26. The only player younger to hit that many homers in a single season at a younger age was Jimmie Foxx, who hit 58 homers in 1932 for the Philadelphia A's at the age of 25. Of course, we don't know if Foxx was on steroids, so to settle this once and for all, I say we dig him up.
Projected record & finish: 94-68, 1st Place, NL East, Lose in NLDS.
Prediction that won't come true but should: Donovan McNabb is invited to throw out the first pitch at the Phillies home opener, but sadly be trips on his way to the mound and blows out his ACL.
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