1) The Dodgers gave Kevin Brown a 7 year, $105 million deal, and after a few seasons watched him break down in a manner that would have made Tom Petty proud. Fortunately for the right-thinking people of America, the final stages of Brown's breakdown occurred in pinstripes, where he is best known for breaking his pitching hand after punching a phone (and, oh yes, choking in Game 7 of the 2004 ALCS).
2) The Rangers threw $65 million at Chan-Ho Park, only to find out that "Chan-Ho Park" translates to "Cannot Pitch Effectively in the American League."
3) Not content with the Kevin Brown deal, the Dodgers gave Darren Dreifort a 5 year, $55 million contract and proceeded to watch him win 9 games before injuries forced his retirement in 2004. In fairness, however, those were nine quality starts.
4) And in the most egregious example of starter contract madness, the Colorado Rockies signed pitchers Mike Hampton and Denny Neagle for a combined $172 million and hoped that both could adjust their sinking pitches to hitter-friendly Coors Field, which is the equivalent of wishing for a logical Iraq strategy from the Bush Administration. In the end, neither made the adjustment. Hampton was traded after two inglorious seasons to Atlanta, where he resurrected his career before being forced to have Tommy John surgery. Neagle was not so lucky. He was so desperate to leave Colorado that he slept with this woman and subsequently had the remaining $19 million of his contract voided after he pled guilty to patronizing this prostitute (she must have looked better in the rarified mountain air). He currently toils in the witness protection program (or the Devil Rays, I forget which, although they’re pretty much the same thing).
Anyway, the message from these disasters seemed to be that investing in long-term, high money contracts for pitchers was not all that wise. For a few years, teams shied away from long-term deals for pitchers, with the exception of the occasional stud #1 starter. Teams finally seemed to be getting that investing many years in such a fragile commodity was unwise. Remember the flak that the Red Sox took when they didn't offer Pedro Martinez a fourth year and he went to the Mets? How does that decision look now? Thus, given the ample weight of precedent, owners would certainly not fall into the trap of blatantly overpaying for starting pitching. Even last year, when the Blue Jays gave oft-injured, mercurial and nipple-pierced pitcher A.J. Burnett a 5-year, $55 million deal, it was seen as a crazy move by a team desperate to compete in the AL East. Surely this madness wouldn’t be repeated in the offseason of 2006-2007, right?
Um, nevermind. This offseason was a veritable orgy of stupid contracts, and 80 percent of them were given to starters. Most of the contracts were given to non-number 1 starters, but for #1 starter money. Many teams still don’t seem to get that starters are huge risks given their durability, or lack thereof. In reality, is it worth paying $10 million for a fourth starter when there’s likely a guy at Triple-A who could come near those same pitching stats for one-thirtieth the price? I’m sorry, that’s too logical – let’s mock some more. Here are the ten worst starter signings of the offseason (backwards from merely terrible to GOOD GOD WHAT WERE YOU THINKING????) By the way, I’m leaving Matsusaka and Igawa out of this list – I’m only looking at pitchers who have proven records of mediocrity and failure at the major-league level):
10) Adam Eaton, Phillies (3 years $24.5 million). Eaton has started a total of 37 games over the last 2 seasons. If anyone thinks he’ll make it through this season healthy, bear in mind that he once missed a start after gashing his abdomen with a knife while trying to open a new DVD. It’s obvious he won’t fit in with the Phillies – after all, their fans know how to use knives, not to mention other projectile objects.
9) Danys Baez, Jamie Walker, and Chad Bradford, RPs, Orioles ($42 million). OK, this is cheating – all three are relievers. However, combined, they’ll have near a starter’s worth of innings this year (assuming they stay healthy), and all were extremely overpaid. They're not terrible, but they're not great. Baez is a former closer who’s blown almost 30 percent of his career save chances. So, this year he’ll get over $6 million per year to blow games in the 7th inning instead of the 9th. Jamie Walker is a 35 year-old lefty specialist who’s decidedly mediocre at getting lefties out. Bradford will face a maximum of 2-3 batters per game. All this for only $42 million! It could get ugly in Camden Yards this year, and by ugly, I mean Peter Angelos ugly.
8) Ted Lilly, Cubs (4 years, $40 million): Legend already has it that Cubs GM Jim Hendry finalized this deal while he was hooked up to an EKG machine after having chest pains. Given that Lilly is a lifetime $59-58 with a 4.60 ERA and has a propensity to give up homers to righties, Hendry may want to have an EKG on hand when he watches Lilly pitch at Wrigley. On the bright side, Lilly and his manager nearly came to blows in the dugout tunnel last season. Given that Lou Piniella is managing the Cubs this year, we could have a boxing match on the pitching mound by June 1. Should be fun.
7) David Wells, Padres (1 year, $3 million). Actually, this is a pretty reasonable deal. However, when you consider the fact that Wells will eat and drink at least $10 million in pre and postgame spreads, it becomes much more troublesome. Of course, he may have gotten himself in shape, you never know!
Doubt it, though.
6) Jeff Suppan, Brewers (4 years, $42 million). If I could have written the
press release announcing Jeff Suppan’s signing (and made up quotes in it), it would have gone something like this:
SUPPAN EXCITED TO JOIN MILWAUKEE, RETURN TO ANONYMITY
Jeff Suppan agreed to a 4-year, $42 million contract today with the Milwaukee Brewers. Suppan, a journeyman pitcher who has pitched for the Red Sox, Diamondbacks, Royals, Pirates, Red Sox (again), and the Cardinals, said that he was looking forward to once again fading into the background. “For years, I’ve been a middle-of-the road-guy, not too noticeable. Heck, I’ve never struck out more than 120 guys in a season, and the Red Sox thought so little of me that they left me off of their 2003 playoff roster,” Suppan said. He added, “My kids mistake me for Jason Marquis some days.”
Up until six months ago, Suppan’s only brush with fame was his stupid base running in the 2004 World Series. But then he won the NLCS MVP last year after 2 good starts, and suddenly he was no longer anonymous. Said Suppan, “The offseason was great – the free meals, the shaking hands, the stem cell prohibition ads, but in my heart I’ve always wanted to remain anonymous. That was my main reason in choosing Milwaukee. But hey, now I get to be anonymous for $42 million.” Suppan added that Brewers fans shouldn’t expect more than 12 wins and a 4.60 ERA this year, and then asked that the TV cameras be turned off, as they were drawing too much attention to him.
5) Barry Zito, Giants (7 years, $126 million). 7 years at $18 million per is too
much for any starter. However, it’s WAY too much for a guy whose walk-to-strikeout ratio has increased for four out of five years. Yes, he’s “durable” in that he doesn’t miss starts, but for $126 million I’d expect durability and performance. I’m just not sure that he’s a #1 guy. On the bright side, I’m sure that the money will cover his moving expenses from Oakland to San Francisco. I’m also looking forward to the expression on Barry Bonds’s face the first time that Zito pulls out a guitar in the locker room. I’m sure he’s already working on a rhyme for “Did I f@$*in stutter?”
4) Miguel Batista, Mariners (3 years, $25 million). While supposedly one of the smartest players in the majors and known to quote Einstein, the 35 year-old Batista apparently isn’t smart enough to use his knowledge of physics to place the ball where he actually wants it. He hasn’t had an ERA below 4 since 2003, and 2006 was his first season of 200+ innings. It’s a shame that the M’s didn’t keep Carl Everett – Batista could have tutored him on evolution. Batists has also written and published a crime novel, and after signing for $25 million, it's safe to say that he truly knows the meaning of theft.
3) Jason Marquis, Cubs (3 years, $21 million). Hey, look it’s the Cubs throwing money around again! Marquis had a 6.02 ERA in 2006, a pudgy physique, and a surly attitude. For this, he gets a World Series ring and $21 million. In fairness, his ERA came in 33 starts, so he was durably bad. If anything, the Cubs must be depressed to get him, as they hit .363 off of him last year. By midseason, Marquis may make Cubs fans feel like Marquis de Sade, without all of the sexual tittilation (but with the excrutiating pain).
2) Vicente Padilla, Rangers (3 years, $33.75 million). Here’s how Padilla has been described: poor makeup, lack of consistent focus, surly, and oh yeah, he probably has a drinking problem. He’s also a lifetime 66-61, and he’s missed significant time two of the previous three years. Yep, that’s the kind of guy I’d want to bank $34 million on. Perhaps the Rangers are hoping that Padilla will be less surly now that he can afford top-shelf liquor.
1) Gil Meche, Royals (5 years, $55 million). I don’t know where to begin in describing how bad this deal is. The Royals have one of the lowest payrolls in baseball, and have been loathe to give out big contracts. So who do they decided to break the bank for? Gil Freakin’ Meche, he of the 4.65 career ERA, NO seasons with 200 innings pitched, two years missed with a rotator cuff injury, and a reputation as a consistent underachiever. At the beginning of the free agent period, I figured that Meche may get a 3-year deal. But 5 years and $55 million? 20 percent of your total payroll? Royals fans, I feel for you. At least there’s the barbecue, I guess.
In fairness, there were some good, low-risk pitcher signings this offseason. Many veterans took 1 or 2-year deals at reasonable prices (Tom Glavine, El Duque, Randy Wolf, Tomo Ohka, Mark Mulder). These deals were all 2 years or less, and thus the risk to the teams was minimal. It goes without saying that none of these guys were signed by the Cubs.
All of these moves make Billy Beane look even smarter (not that he needs his ego to go any higher). Beane (who to the uninitiated is the Oakland GM) has been criticized ad nauseum for his "Moneyball" principles. The criticism often revolves around the fact that "Moneyball" relies too heavily on a stats such as a batters' on-base and slugging percentages and not enough on other factors (such as defense, baserunning, and those vital "intangibles" that Joe Morgan substitutes for Internet porn to make him horny). However, if anyone has followed the philosophy of Beane, "Moneyball" isn't really about getting beer-league softball guys who get on base and do nothing else. Rather, it's about investing money wisely, typically by spending on "undervalued" commodities. Given that the A's have a limited payroll ($62 million on 2006, as opposed to $194 million in Gotham), doesn't it make sense to spend that $62 million on say, $100 million in value?
A few years back, teams were undervaluing OBP, and thus the A's stayed competitive with said beer-leaguers (of course, developing young starters like Mulder, Hudson and Zito didn't hurt, either). However, last year's A's team went to the ALCS with a team that was only 7th in OBP and 13th in slugging in the American League. So how did they make it that far? Well, for starters, the A's had the 4th best ERA in the league. Plus, they had the second highest fielding percentage and a big increase in their deficiency rating (basically, this means the percentage of balls in play that they successfully fielded). Billy Beane, realizing that there was an OBP mini-craze, went out and invested more in defense, and it worked.
Mr. Beane must be chuckling now at baseball's newest overspending spree for starting pitchers. Note that the A’s did not invest in a starter this year even though they lost Zito (although they still have Harden, Haren, and Loaiza). They might have some weaknesses at the back end of their rotation, but better to use their limited resources on other things and let Brad Halsey/Joe Kennedy/Joe Blanton/Dan Meyer et al. fill out the last 2 rotation spots than to spend $25 million on a fourth starter with high risk. Decisions like this are why the A’s will be in the playoff chase, while some of the other teams above will wonder what went wrong.
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