Barring injury, indictment, or an Old Testament-style act by a vengeful but just God (c'mon, locusts!), you're looking at the man who will be baseball's all-time home run king by the end of the season. There's no doubt that AT&T Park's turnstiles will be humming this summer as hearty Giants fans breathlessly watch the most joyless pursuit of a major sports record in American history. However, lost in the mess of what's his name's home run chase/grand jury investigation/Paula Abdul impression (which was mimicked by Barry Zito the other day - hide the kids), a simple yet overlooked fact remains - the Giants aren't a very good team. The Giants are an old, plodding collection of players in need of a youth invigoration that doesn't seem to be coming. Even in the eminently mediocre NL West, the Giants likely won't compete. It's strangely appropriate that the ultimate me-first player won't be subject to the pressure of a pennant race as he tries to reach his individual goal (he may, however, be subject to painful, swollen breasts). Here's what to expect from the Giants in 2007:
Biggest reason for hope: Zito, Matt Cain and Noah Lowry could eat up innings and form a "big three" that could be among the best in the National League. Or, if Lowry doesn't step up and Zito is a bust, the Giants 2007 motto could be "Cain surrounded by pain."
Biggest potential nightmare for Giants fans: Bonds suffers a major injury early in the season. In case you forgot, he is 42, his knees are shot, he had a painful elbow all of last season, and he's probably more prone to hamstring pulls and other miscellaneous muscle and joint issues, because, well, you know. On the other hand, his odds of suffering a testicle-related injury have shrunken significantly.
Players to watch: Zito and Armando Benitez. Zito's ludicrous 7-year, $126 million contract will not look as bad if he makes every start and takes advantage of the switch to the NL and to a pitchers' park. However, given his consistently decreasing walk-to-strikeout ratio and his lack of big game performances, there's a legitimate question as to whether he's a #1 starter. Plus, you have to question the wisdom of any player who specifically requests a locker next to Barry Bonds (prediction - Bonds will have smashed Zito's guitar to bits by the All-Star break). As for Benitez, the Giants desperately need him to be the solid back end of a shaky bullpen. However, given his recent history, I recommend that you pick an early date on the "when will Armando Benitez break down?" pool.
Why do we still have to watch this player?: Russ Ortiz. It's very rare for a player to be cut 16 months into a 4 year, $32 million contract. However, when your ERA over that period exceeds 7, the decision is easier than Paris Hilton after several mimosas. San Francisco is now taking a flyer on Arizona's disaster, hoping that a return to the Bay will reinvigorate Ortiz. However, given his girth and flat, slow "fastball," I wouldn't count on a new and improved Ortiz in 2007.
Telling Statistic: Bonds led the league with 41 intentional walks last year and holds 4 of the 5 top all-time totals for single season intentional walks (the most being a mind-boggling 120 in 2004). Manager Bruce Bochy hasn't yet settled on a regular lineup, but expects Randy Winn, Pedro Feliz or Bengie Molina to bat fifth behind Bonds. Not exactly Ruth, Gehrig, and Lazzeri, is it? Expect Bonds to get walked a lot again this year, unless Bonds starts sneaking Molina some flaxseed oil.
Interesting fact signifying nothing: The Giants have a reliever named Brian Wilson. God only knows if he'll amount to anything, but wouldn't it be nice if he brought some good vibrations to the Giants this year. However, given his career 5.40 ERA, I guess Wilson just wasn't made for these times.
Projected record & finish - 70-92, 5th Place, NL West
Prediction that won’t come true but should: Bonds hits his 755th homer, and soaks in his own sense of self-satisfaction as he jogs around the bases. he is so sucked into his achievement that he doesn't notice the FBI agents sprinting onto the field. He's arrested between third base and home plate, leading to the greatest perp walk ever. Also, by not crossing home, Hank Aaron still holds the all-time home run record. All is good and just in the world.
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